Electoral Differences between McCain and Bush

Why is it that John McCain picked Sarah Palin? The answer lies in how George W. Bush won the presidency. President Bush jumped on a wave of conservative ire aimed at the Democratic Party and President Clinton on the heels of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. By driving a convincing message that he would realize the conservative agenda, Bush energized the huge electoral machine of right wing moralists. This shifted the field to the right, and required VP Gore to play a more moderate game than he would have otherwise played, and it just did not ring true to anyone. Bush didn’t really play to the moderates, except to be some sort of compassionate conservative.

McCain argues that he is a moderate, and so he should have played to them. Instead, he tried to play President Bush’s game of driving to the right after the primary was won. The New York Times recently had an article that compares the campaigns to the faux campaigns found in the last two seasons of West Wing. In that series, at one point it is argued that the Republican candidate (Vinick) could wiin ALL fifty states by expanding the moderate base of his party. This is what McCain could have tried to do, but it is not what he did. Instead, he attempted to play to both bases, and he argued neither convincingly. By bringing in Sarah Palin he alienated the center. And it wasn’t enough to sooth the right.

There was no way that George Bush’s strategy would work for John McCain. McCain is also the victim of bad timing, with regard to the economy, an issue about which the public as blamed the Republicans nearly exclusively. Barack Obama, merely has to mention the economy and McCain’s ratings drop. That is vaguely reminiscient of President Clinton’s old slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Were it only the economy, perhaps McCain could have survived. However, the War on Terror also looms like an albatross around the neck of Republicans. People are sick of it. Finally.

And so, before Democrats start to crow too loudly, one should point out that neither of these two problems, the economy or our current geopolitical environment, are simple problems, and both will require serious consideration and absense of hubris to repair.

Past Political Themes: Compassionate Conservative

Some time ago – in fact just over eight years ago, Governor George W. Bush started describing himself as a “compassionate conservative”. Here’s the question: what was so compassionate about this president? Did he actually help the poorest members of society? Did he help those who were most disenfranchised? I see no evidence of his doing so. Perhaps it is unfair to judge him in this light given that he now seemingly defines his presidency as how he responded to the attacks on September 11th. Or perhaps we should simply not speak ill of the lame duck, not because it’s in bad taste but simply because it is not worth our time. But feel free if you like.

Sarah Palin is NOT showing up

NPR’s Morning Edition today had a report on Governor Sarah Palin. Apparently she is taking a page from President Bush and carefully controlling media access. In other words: limited interviews, and no press access. What little press she has had has been bad. Between the ongoing investigation and her refusal to release her income tax records, one has to wonder if she really is ready for her current position of governor, much less that of vice president. One also has to wonder why the people of Alaska put up with this sort of behavior.

Say what you will about Senator Biden, either through intent or incompetence, he has a long history from which we can judge (and have). This leads to the first rule of governing: you have to show up, and Sarah Palin is not.

Worse, even when she makes statements they are plattitudes. Telling Americans not to question Israel is as destructive to the democratic process here at home as it is to Israel and her neighbors. We cannnot be an honest broker if we do not question all parties, and that is what the region needs most of all. Even the current administration recognizes the mistakes it has made. These were lessons that ought not to have been learned in office, and we certainly cannot afford for another administration to learn them again.

We need better.

McCain Tactics Wrong

Americans measure both leaders and potential leaders against how they would handle problems of the day. The problem of the day is the crisis on Wall St., and Senator John McCain is violating the first rule of campaigning: he’s not. Now- if he were the chairman of the Federal Reserve, that might make sense on at least two levels, that he would have been central to having caused the mess, and central to clean it up. But he is neither.

He does not want to show up at a debate on Friday night in Mississippi if the crisis is not resolved. Question: what business gets conducted on a Friday night? Practically none. It’s not to say that people can’t work on Friday night, but very little need be done then. Especially by him.

John McCain made his mark on foreign policy and on generally conservative domestic policies. He is not now, nor has he ever been a banker, sat on a banking committee, or promoted policies relating to banks.

This very much reminds me of the time President Carter barricaded himself in the Whitehouse during the Iranian hostage crisis. McCain should expect the same results Carter got.

Doh Biden

Several weeks ago I wrote that Barack Obama’s choice for vice president compares with that of Spiro Agnew, and that he is a great pick if you like mediocrity, with a very undistinguished career in the Senate. The New York Times has picked up on some of Senator Biden’s less inspiring moments on the campaign trail. And now we can compare him to Dan Quayle. One wonders if Biden knows how to spell potato.