A Question I keep getting asked: What do you think of Obama?

President-elect Barack ObamaAs an American living abroad, very few people ever asked me what I thought of President Bush.  They all have their opinions, it seems.  And while few Swiss generally share their opinions with me, they are very intrigued about my own opinion of the incoming president.  To this question, I’ve developed a pretty stock answer: “I don’t know.  Ask me in a few years.”

President-elect Obama has demonstrated thoughtfulness in the few times I have heard him speak extemporaneuously.  He also seems to have assembled a very competent cabinet with vast amounts of political experience.  This can be put another way- it’s the same old faces we’ve come to know.  Another young president did his best to put together a superstar team, and it led us to the war in Vietnam.  All this says is that brain power isn’t everything.

President Carter is perhaps one of the smartest men in the world, and yet his presidency is generally views as a failure.  It took President Bush to eclipse him in that department, showing that failure is not limited to one party or another.

Given the choice between having brain power and experience and not having it, clearly I’d rather have it.  But something more is required: wisdom.  While it’s easy to demonstrate a lack of wisdom, I’m not sure how easy it is to demonstrate that one has it.  Again, the thoughtfulness that he has applied to complex issues leads me to hope, but that’s the best I can do for now.

Bamford’s latest update on the NSA

James Bamford is well known for his revealing of the National Security Agency in The Puzzle Palace, published in 1983.  He has written two updates since then, Body of Secrets and The Shadow Factory, the latest one covering the Bush Administration in some detail.  Bamford’s technical details in The Shadow Factory are nowhere near as good as they were in The Puzzle Palace, which is something that really attracted me to his writing.  Also, in this book, Bamford seems to play both sides of the fence, at one point arguing that the attacks on 9/11 were an intelligence failure, while at the same time arguing that we must safeguard our civil liberties.  This works, mostly because he successfully argues (in my opinion) that the government had all the power it needed to stop the attacks, but that incompetence ruled the day.

To be sure there are a few points I would take issue with.  For one, although I despise the name, it was probably a good idea to roll together many agencies into the Department of Homeland Security.  But quite frankly even that was done ineptly, as we have seen from auditor reports, again and again.

Returning to the Shadow Factory, in this update Bamford highlights the role of the Internet and the change in the nature of communications, where many communications have moved from sattelite to fiber, and from simple voice circuits to voice over IP.  He talks about certain organizations wanting to hire Cisco employees simply to reverse engineer IOS and find ways to install back doors.  I have no way of knowing if that has happened.

Bamford retreads much of the story about the illegal spying the NSA did within the United States, and how James Comey would not recertify the program.  While it makes my blood boil to think that anyone in government would think that such a program was legal (certified by the attorney general or not), that part of the story isn’t so much about the NSA as it is about Dick Cheney and David Attington.  Quite frankly I think Bob Woordward has covered that ground as well as could be covered.

Were I to give advice to Mr. Bamford it would be simply this: it is difficult to read just one of the three books he’s written, as either the earliest is woefully out of date, or the latest doesn’t stand on its own without having read the earliest.  A consolidated update that combines all three seems in order.

Obama’s team, thus far

President-elect Obama has selected key members of his cabinet to be nominated.  Here is the list of which I am aware, in order of succession.

  • Secretary of State: Hilary Clinton
  • Secretary of the Treasury: Timothy Geithner
  • Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates
  • Attorney General: Eric Holder
  • Secretary of Commerce: Bill Richardson
  • Secretary of Homeland Security: Janet Nepalitano

Here are some key members of his staff he has named:

  • Director of OMB: Lawrence Summers
  • National Security Advisor: James Jones
  • Press Secretary: Robert Gibbs
  • Ellen Moran

These choices do not reflect a radical shift from the Clinton era but rather a subtle change.  This is probably a good thing, since Clinton seemed to have gotten it mostly right.  The most provocative choices, of course, are Senator Clinton and Ellen Moran.

Ellen Moran, coming from Emily’s List sends a strong message that the issues that group holds dear will be front and center in an Obama administration.  The right will certainly not be pleased with such a choice.

And it’s not clear who should be pleased with Mrs Clinton as a choice for Secretary of State, aside from perhaps President Clinton, as she has very limited foreign policy experience, and clearly does not see eye to eye with the President-elect regarding Iraq.  Worse, she has her hands dirty with her vote to go to war, having perhaps lost a primary over that very issue.

In the meantime, the President-elect is very busily cleaning out southwester governors’ mansions with the choices of Janet Nepolitano and Bill Richardson. Perhaps he will name Arnold Schwarzenegger back to his old job as head of the President’s Council on Health and Fitness.

Vetting Bill Clinton?

Here is the most bizarre story I’ve heard in a while.  Apparently President-elect Obama is considering Senator Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.  While I wonder whether this is a good choice alone on its merits, what really gets me is how people in the press seem to believe that Bill Clinton, a former president who received millions of votes twice, somehow needs to be vetted.  It’s not as if the media has cut him a break.

The reason behind all of this might be best put as the calm before the storm.  Right now there is no news, and so a vacuum must be filled.  With names being bantered about like Clinton and Richardson, who knows who the real nominee will be?

Mr. Bush, you’re no Harry Truman

Some people are really not meant for this earth.  They happen to exist through luck or by the grace of others, or simply because evolution has not provided sufficient stimulus to cause them to bring themselves to an end.

Such was the case with union leaders in early 1980s, and not it seems to be the case with the Wall Street Journal.  In this lovely editorial, Jeffrey Scott Shapiro wonders why President Bush is receiving such a public flogging as hasn’t been seen since Truman, and whines that the attacks on Mr. Bush have been slanderous.  Perhaps some have been, but there have been plenty more that are well deserved.  Let’s review a bit with Mr. Shapiro, who appears to need the lesson.

The Economy

He argues that the current administration has little to do with the current economic mess.  Their appointee to chair the SEC, Christopher Cox led the commission that weakened the firewall within banks between lending and investing so that an investment failure could cause a banking failure, which is what happened.

Taking Deregulation to Its Illogical Conclusion

Over the last eight years we have seen more food scares than in the previous forty.  At one time it’s meat, and then it’s spinach, and then tomatoes.  Today we all worry about products brought in from China.  The regulatory regime of the FDA is so lax its amazing anything is safe to eat.  At the same time we are polluting our air and water while consuming as much oil as ever.  Mr. Bush entered the stage with corporate greed on everyone’s mind.  Enron and Worldcom were household names.  You would think we would keep a closer eye on Corporate America, and the Sarbanes Oxley act was meant to do just that.  And yet we have just shoveled another $700 billion into the banks.

Losing Two Wars

It was perhaps inevitable and likely necessary that we would go to war with the Taliban in order to root Al Qaida out of Afghanistan.  That we haven’t won the war is inexcusable.  President Bush doesn’t understand what winning a war is.  It is not enough to simply have moved troops into a particular piece of real estate, but rather to accomplish a particular political objective.  In Afghanistan that was to install a stable democratic government.  Stability requires lots and lots of time, effort, planning, and money, which Mr. Bush denied the Afghans by devoting his attention elsewhere.  Today we see fighting along the border, a resurgence of the Taliban outside of Kabul, and war lords re-emerging as power centers.  All of this was not inevitable.  It is one thing to try and fail, but we failed to try.

The other war was a war of choice that we entered because we were not told the truth.  President Bush claimed on more than one occasion that he acted on the same intelligence that President Clinton had.  If that was the case (and it seems that it was), then Mr. Bush demonstrated a shocking lack of judgment for the job in which he found himself.

But that wasn’t the worst of it, once in Iraq we failed to stabilize the situation, to provide basic services to the citizens, and to re-establish any semblance of normality in their lives.  Rather than paying attention to the deteriorating situation, Mr. Bush believed his chief lieutenants, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, and Condoliza Rice, as was well documented by Bob Woodward.

Loss of Moral Authority

Engaging in a war of choice against the wishes of most of the world was one of the many ways in which we lost the respect of the common individual in many countries.  By creating prisons and holding people indefinitely without trial, the administration flouted the law.  Allowing people to be transported to far away countries for the purposes of torture demonstrated to people outside the U.S. that we would do anything that we thought justifiable in the name of national security.  Denying them public trials further demonstrates a level of depravity usually attributed to petty dictators.

Isolation of America

Every foreign visitor has been subject to treatment that is usually reserved for common criminals.  Upon entry their pictures and fingerprints are taken, stored in a system of questionable security, subjecting them to potential identity theft, a problem that this administration has generally ignored.  It has been all but impossible for residents of the middle east to visit, due to extensive consular demands.  The effort required to visit the U.S. has cost us tourism and business as organizations have moved their meetings elsewhere.

Fear

I reserve my strongest ire for Mr. Bush and his sidekick for having led America, not from a position of strength, where he could have told people after 9/11 that the best way to get back at people who do not believe in our way of life is to rebuld and outmarket them; but instead from a position of fear.  Mr. Bush spread fear everywhere he went.  He did it perhaps because he was fearful.  But he also profited from fear, scoring political points off of peoples’ fear.  He imposed onerous rules at airports, treated foreigners like criminals, snooped into people’s private lives, and violated principles many Americans hold dear.

And so perhaps some level of disrespect is deserved.  Mr. Shapiro points out that after a generation people came to value Harry Truman and his presidency, and he argues that the same could happen with President Bush.  Harry Truman stood up to his military by integrating them, ended WWII in the Pacific through what could only have been a terrible choice, stood up against Stalin in Germany, and stood up against his own general in Korea.  He was attacked from the right because of wrongful accusations against his secretary of state by a Republican whacko named Joe McCarthy.  History showed he was right in each of the above cases, and his critics were wrong.  Does anyone seriously believe President Bush is in the same league as President Truman?  If so, please pass me what you’re smoking.